2015: NIGERIA’ S WATERSHED, who Occupies Aso Rock?

The 2015 elections are around the corner, and top on the list is the presidential election, which could be the decisive factor that would determine the continued existence of the country. Ahmed Dodo examines some of the intrigues that might shape the election and the chances of the contesting parties the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the opposition All Progressive Party (APC) in the race.

Perhaps no election in the history of Nigeria has been more controversial and more decisive than the forth - coming general elections; Most importantly the presidential election. Who occupies the Nigerian seat of power- Aso Rock, come May 29, 2015?

This important question seems to be the watershed that would determine the continuedF existence of the most populous nation in Africa, and a practicable answer is expected to surface on the 28^th, of March, 2015, through the ballot box.

  But like everything created and done by man under the sun divergent views and interest have been pouring in from different quarters across the country and beyond. And as expected issues and controversies have been trailing the forth-coming elections, with tribal and religion sentiments playing a big role as Nigerians and indeed the world wait to see the outcome of the 2015 Presidential election between the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Goodluck Ebele Jonathan who is the incumbent and his challenger the All Progressive Congress (APC) candidate Muhammadu Buhari, a retired Nigerian military general and former head of state.

While this important election has been dubbed the Nigeria political battle of the century, SEE Magazine in this Special Edition went to town to sample opinions from Nigerians cutting across the regions in the country.

 For Ibrahim Ibrahim, a Yoruba from Kwara state, nothing is going to stop the wind of change that the APC is carrying along with it. According to him the next presidential election is not all about tribe or religion, but rather it is about a change that the people all across the country have been yelling for. ‘’ Look to be sincere with you, nothing is going to stop the APC from winning the presidential election. I want to assure you that Buhari will win the election if it is done in a free and fear manner. No amount of political blackmail like the present cheap media propaganda being used by people like Ayo Fayose, Fani Kayode, AIT, NTA and the others can stop this change.  The only thing that could bring problem is when the real winner is refused his victory at the end of the day.’’

The issue of political crisis in Nigeria is not new.  And like Alhaji Shakiru Onalapo, a PDP member from Kwara rightly pointed out ‘’ The current political atmosphere in the country is highly charge. What could bring in trouble is when the umpires decide to give out victory to the wrong winner. But if everything goes on free and fear I don’t foresee any crisis.’’ For this member of the opposition in Kwara state  who  has the view that the  current  APC administration in the state has failed in almost all aspect of governance there was no way the party could deliver the state to the national level. Instead he foresees a victory for the PDP gubernatorial candidate Senator S.S Ajibola, who he believes would swap the peoples supports for the ruling party. ‘’ Our people are now well informed and aware of  the political  gimmicks of the ruling party in the state. They all need change from the Saraki political dynasty and Senator Ajibola is the only candidate that can deliver Kwarans from this grip. Today Kwara has a strong deficit in infrastructural development across the state, so the people need a change.’’

While these views are shared among people from Kwara part of the northern state of Nigeria, other opposing views are those from Kaduna, the seat of northern political power.  Abubakar Araba is a public affair analyst and holds the view that most people in the north and across the country are yelling for a change and the APC is the only political party that could bring that change. ‘’ I must be frank with you, the Jonathan administration has failed. It has failed in security matter, we have more graduate unemployment in the country today than before and there is now a strong tribal and religion bigotry  among the people, all these through the PDP policies.  The likes of Tompolo and Asari Dokubo are misleading the president and have added more problems to his re-election. Again the recent diminish statement from the first lady against the north and its people would definitely work against the re-emergence of Jonathan as the president of this country. It was a total anti-nationalist statement from the wife of a sitting president.’’

Araba’s assessment of the divisive utterances of  some of  Jonathan’s supporters and kinsmen no doubt  is an issue that will play a decisive role in  the presidential election, this given the fact that some of these utterances  are  blinkered and could inflame an already lighted political  and religion division  in the country. The 2015 elections connote an introduction of more tribal and religion division into the Nigerian political system. This is visible in the open participation of clerics, sheiks, pastors and Imans in the current political turmoil; they have been heard and seen preaching more about politics during their sermons, with some opening anointing or endorsing the candidates of their choice.

‘’ I think the 2015 elections is more of tribal and religion expression. The politicians have been able to indoctrinate the minds of some of the electorate with tribal and religion bigotry with the help of some of our so-called religion leaders. Our churches and mosques today are filled with sermons on political preaching.’’ Alfred Tokuna, an engineer from Benue state summed it up this way.

Violence in Nigeria politics through religion instigations caused by preachers, turned politicians is also not something new, but the current trend is way out of something else.  The silence division in churches and mosques across some states testify to this synthesis and using money and other materialist inducements the politicians have been able to infiltrate the churches and mosques and bought over the pulpits.

 

 

 

 

The Anglican Bishop of Kaduna, Josiah Idowu Fearon having been a witness to election violence in the country recently warned the politicians to refrain from using religion as a weapon to cause problems in the country. He gave out this warning at a workshop on the role of the community and traditional leaders in promoting peace and violence free elections. He said the violence events that followed the 2011 elections were regrettable.

Lending his voice to violent free elections, the former Nigeria Permanent Representative at The United Nations, Professor Ibrahim Gambari while speaking to journalist after a meeting with Obasanjo recently berated violent rallies in the country. He cautioned people including the first lady against indulging in utterances that are capable of undermining peaceful polls. He avowed that whosoever plunge the country into violence would be made to account for it by the International Criminal Court, ICC.

For Hashimu Aliyu, a young politician from Kaduna the 2015 election will definitely bring the change his state and the country needed over the years. He is of the view that the opposition would form the next government in the state and across the country. ‘’ Kaduna state have been operating on roads built by the colonial masters , so by the time the APC formed the next government Kaduna state is going to witness massive development and this would also transit to the national level with Buhari in charge. I don’t foresee any violence this time around, unless if there is injustice. But we the youths are now wiser and sharper.’’ Mallam Jamilu of Tudun Wada a APCsupporter says what the country need at the moment is a change. According to him live has become unbearable due to the current policies of the PDP. ‘’ We must tell ourselves the truth, a rich country like Nigeria deserves  better than what is currently going on in the political system of the country. We need good jobs, our children are more into scavenging and this have turned most of them into engaging in bad vices.’’

This view is also shared by Isiaku Geogio  a Mechanical Engineer in Kaduna. ‘’ I see the opposition winning the next election in the state and the country at large. Take Kaduna for instance, all the industries are shutdown and the next government will fix them given the pedigree of the two people, Buhari and El-Rufai.   There won’t be any violence, the electorates are now more aware and know that the politicians are using them for their selfish aims. I urged them to just come out to vote. And if at the end of the day APC failed in proper governance we will sweep them away  just like we are going to the PDP now’’.

 But for Railwanu Abdullahi the Sole Administrator of  Kaduna North ,the oldest local government in the north, he is confident that his party would come out victorious in the coming elections. ‘’ I want to assure the general public that the PDP as a government is a responsible one with sanity, equity, justice and prosperity to all. My advice for the contender of the governorship of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasiru El-Rufai is to reconsider his ambition and endorse governor Yero for the betterment of the people and the state at large.’’ He said.

 

While there seems to be hope of a violence free elections in some part of the north, analysts are predicting a victory for the APC in the South-west states, made up of Lagos, Oyo, Osun, Ekiti,Ondo, and Ogun, including  Kwara, with a large population of Yoruba speaking people. ‘’ The South-west is going to be the decisive factor that would determine the 2015 presidential election. Remember Buhari was able to garner 12million votes in the south-west and then the support was not as strong as this. But right now all the states in the south-west are for the APC. Even in Ekiti, Nigerians now know what happened there.’’ Though the south west is known with its own political violence, but it’s a different ball game from the ones usually experienced in the northern part, normally laced with tribal and religion undertone.

The road towards 2015 elections has not been easy on Nigerians, with various crises rearing its heads dangerously from different angle of the federation.  The highest being the worse insecurity situation in the history of the country apart from the civil war. The current act of terrorism going on in the North-East where the Nigeria military are still daily battling the deadly Boko Haram sect has remained a mystery to the people.  It has become an issue that has been politicised amid daily waste of lives and property.

 One of the greatest factors that helped fuelled the current political tension in the country is the now famous prediction by the United State of America, that the country presently existing as the Federal Republic of Nigeria might not be existing in the year 2015. This disturbing information emitted from the Central Intelligence Agency CIA, one of the world’s efficient security agency under the America system.

With utterances of division coming from some part of the south-south and part of the north, the prediction gained momentum and resulted into the present political division. Apart from the polluted forecast of the Americans, division in development and resource control creep in and since then the political atmosphere has never been the same again.

But one factor that would play a vital role on who occupies Aso-Rock in 2015 is the support of some of the political gladiators in the country. Men like Atiku Abubakar, a political stallion with a strong political muscle and followership across all the geo-political zones in the country.   Another strong political gladiator who holds a strong ace towards the 2015 elections is Ahmed Bola Tinubu, the fearless and resourceful leader of APC. A story of move to buy him over and form an Interim Goverment is one of the damaging controversies confronting the presidency.

The influence of strong political figure like Olusegun Obasanjo the former occupier of Aso-Rock would also determines who emerge the next president of the country. His political battle with the present administration is popular among the people. And some analysts are pointing out his underground strategies of imposing his effluence on the political landscape of Nigeria; though others have also pointed out his contribution to the current political situation of god-fatherism in Nigerian politics.

One other strong figure with a strong clutch on the political system is former president, Ibrahim Babangida whose romance with various political office holders in both the ruling party and the opposition is legendary. Seen as an unpredictable political gladiator that works behind the curtain; his influence is expected to determine who emerge the next elected president of Nigeria.

‘’ Men like IBB are still working behind the scene, his influence could switch the votes for the PDP and give us our deserve victory.’’ Clement  Nwanko  a diehard PDP  member from the South-East summarised it this way.

Feelers from the South-south, south-west and some part of the middle belt indicate a surprise competitive race between the PDP and the APC. One figure that has stood out boldly is that of Ameachi the outgoing APC governor of River State and a strong critic of the present administration. Seen as enemy number one of the president, Ameachi influence in the political decimal of the south-south has become something of a phenomenon. Bold, articulate and swift; he is seen as the joker that might caused the PDP to lose its support in some of the south-south states.

No election in the country since the first republic has seen an open attack on personality like the 2015 elections and the battle for the presidency takes the lead in this aspect. News and reports of daily degrading of each other on both policies and personal life is top on the list of the skirmishes that has characterized this election. Both the PDP presidential candidate Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari of the APC seems to have willing supporters and aides ready to fire back at each other verbal utterances or political statements made from both sides. While this might be seen as part of democracy, many of these campaign war of words have helped exposed some weakness in the polity, and if not make more popular one of the candidate.

The controversies surrounding the 2015 elections are still ongoing, and they seem to surface as the days roll towards that watershed that would determine the continuance existence of the country.  The card reader issue is still on and the all important PVC problem is still ongoing.  Whatever the outcome, the 2015 elections rest squarely on who occupies Aso-Rock as the next elected president come 28^th, March, 2015, and this election could be the decisive force that would determine the continuous existence of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

 

 

First published on the 28^th March, 2014 in the SEE Magazine