The
2015 elections are around the corner, and top on the list is the presidential
election, which could be the decisive factor that would determine the continued
existence of the country. Ahmed Dodo
examines some of the intrigues that might shape the election and the chances of
the contesting parties the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the opposition
All Progressive Party (APC) in the race.
Perhaps no election in the history of Nigeria has
been more controversial and more decisive than the forth - coming general
elections; Most importantly the presidential election. Who occupies the
Nigerian seat of power- Aso Rock, come May 29, 2015?
This important question seems to be the watershed
that would determine the continuedF existence of the most populous nation in
Africa, and a practicable answer is expected to surface on the 28th,
of March, 2015, through the ballot box.
But like everything
created and done by man under the sun divergent views and interest have been
pouring in from different quarters across the country and beyond. And as expected
issues and controversies have been trailing the forth-coming elections, with
tribal and religion sentiments playing a big role as Nigerians and indeed the
world wait to see the outcome of the 2015 Presidential election between the
ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Goodluck Ebele Jonathan who is
the incumbent and his challenger the All Progressive Congress (APC) candidate Muhammadu
Buhari, a retired Nigerian military general and former head of state.
While this important election has been dubbed the
Nigeria political battle of the century, SEE
Magazine in this Special Edition went to town to sample opinions from
Nigerians cutting across the regions in the country.
For Ibrahim
Ibrahim, a Yoruba from Kwara state, nothing is going to stop the wind of change
that the APC is carrying along with it. According to him the next presidential
election is not all about tribe or religion, but rather it is about a change
that the people all across the country have been yelling for. ‘’ Look to be
sincere with you, nothing is going to stop the APC from winning the
presidential election. I want to assure you that Buhari will win the election
if it is done in a free and fear manner. No amount of political blackmail like
the present cheap media propaganda being used by people like Ayo Fayose, Fani
Kayode, AIT, NTA and the others can stop this change. The only thing that could bring problem is
when the real winner is refused his victory at the end of the day.’’
The issue of political crisis in Nigeria is not
new. And like Alhaji Shakiru Onalapo, a
PDP member from Kwara rightly pointed out ‘’ The current political atmosphere
in the country is highly charge. What could bring in trouble is when the
umpires decide to give out victory to the wrong winner. But if everything goes
on free and fear I don’t foresee any crisis.’’ For this member of the
opposition in Kwara state who has the view that the current
APC administration in the state has failed in almost all aspect of governance
there was no way the party could deliver the state to the national level. Instead
he foresees a victory for the PDP gubernatorial candidate Senator S.S Ajibola,
who he believes would swap the peoples supports for the ruling party. ‘’ Our
people are now well informed and aware of
the political gimmicks of the
ruling party in the state. They all need change from the Saraki political
dynasty and Senator Ajibola is the only candidate that can deliver Kwarans from
this grip. Today Kwara has a strong deficit in infrastructural development
across the state, so the people need a change.’’
While these views are shared among people from Kwara
part of the northern state of Nigeria, other opposing views are those from
Kaduna, the seat of northern political power.
Abubakar Araba is a public affair analyst and holds the view that most
people in the north and across the country are yelling for a change and the APC
is the only political party that could bring that change. ‘’ I must be frank
with you, the Jonathan administration has failed. It has failed in security
matter, we have more graduate unemployment in the country today than before and
there is now a strong tribal and religion bigotry among the people, all these through the PDP
policies. The likes of Tompolo and Asari
Dokubo are misleading the president and have added more problems to his re-election.
Again the recent diminish statement from the first lady against the north and
its people would definitely work against the re-emergence of Jonathan as the
president of this country. It was a total anti-nationalist statement from the
wife of a sitting president.’’
Araba’s assessment of the divisive utterances
of some of Jonathan’s supporters and kinsmen no
doubt is an issue that will play a
decisive role in the presidential
election, this given the fact that some of these utterances are
blinkered and could inflame an already lighted political and religion division in the country. The 2015 elections connote an
introduction of more tribal and religion division into the Nigerian political
system. This is visible in the open participation of clerics, sheiks, pastors
and Imans in the current political turmoil; they have been heard and seen
preaching more about politics during their sermons, with some opening anointing
or endorsing the candidates of their choice.
‘’ I think the 2015 elections is more of tribal and religion
expression. The politicians have been able to indoctrinate the minds of some of
the electorate with tribal and religion bigotry with the help of some of our
so-called religion leaders. Our churches and mosques today are filled with
sermons on political preaching.’’ Alfred Tokuna, an engineer from Benue state summed
it up this way.
Violence in Nigeria politics through religion
instigations caused by preachers, turned politicians is also not something new,
but the current trend is way out of something else. The silence division in churches and mosques
across some states testify to this synthesis and using money and other materialist
inducements the politicians have been able to infiltrate the churches and
mosques and bought over the pulpits.
The Anglican Bishop of Kaduna, Josiah Idowu Fearon
having been a witness to election violence in the country recently warned the
politicians to refrain from using religion as a weapon to cause problems in the
country. He gave out this warning at a workshop on the role of the community
and traditional leaders in promoting peace and violence free elections. He said
the violence events that followed the 2011 elections were regrettable.
Lending his voice to violent free elections, the
former Nigeria Permanent Representative at The United Nations, Professor
Ibrahim Gambari while speaking to journalist after a meeting with Obasanjo
recently berated violent rallies in the country. He cautioned people including the
first lady against indulging in utterances that are capable of undermining
peaceful polls. He avowed that whosoever plunge the country into violence would
be made to account for it by the International Criminal Court, ICC.
For Hashimu Aliyu, a young politician from Kaduna
the 2015 election will definitely bring the change his state and the country
needed over the years. He is of the view that the opposition would form the
next government in the state and across the country. ‘’ Kaduna state have been
operating on roads built by the colonial masters , so by the time the APC
formed the next government Kaduna state is going to witness massive development
and this would also transit to the national level with Buhari in charge. I
don’t foresee any violence this time around, unless if there is injustice. But
we the youths are now wiser and sharper.’’ Mallam Jamilu of Tudun Wada a APCsupporter
says what the country need at the moment is a change. According to him live has
become unbearable due to the current policies of the PDP. ‘’ We must tell
ourselves the truth, a rich country like Nigeria deserves better than what is currently going on in the
political system of the country. We need good jobs, our children are more into
scavenging and this have turned most of them into engaging in bad vices.’’
This view is also shared by Isiaku Geogio a Mechanical Engineer in Kaduna. ‘’ I see the
opposition winning the next election in the state and the country at large.
Take Kaduna for instance, all the industries are shutdown and the next
government will fix them given the pedigree of the two people, Buhari and
El-Rufai. There won’t be any violence,
the electorates are now more aware and know that the politicians are using them
for their selfish aims. I urged them to just come out to vote. And if at the
end of the day APC failed in proper governance we will sweep them away just like we are going to the PDP now’’.
But for
Railwanu Abdullahi the Sole Administrator of
Kaduna North ,the oldest local government in the north, he is confident
that his party would come out victorious in the coming elections. ‘’ I want to
assure the general public that the PDP as a government is a responsible one
with sanity, equity, justice and prosperity to all. My advice for the contender
of the governorship of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasiru El-Rufai is to reconsider
his ambition and endorse governor Yero for the betterment of the people and the
state at large.’’ He said.
While there seems to be hope of a violence free
elections in some part of the north, analysts are predicting a victory for the
APC in the South-west states, made up of Lagos, Oyo, Osun, Ekiti,Ondo, and
Ogun, including Kwara, with a large
population of Yoruba speaking people. ‘’ The South-west is going to be the
decisive factor that would determine the 2015 presidential election. Remember Buhari
was able to garner 12million votes in the south-west and then the support was
not as strong as this. But right now all the states in the south-west are for
the APC. Even in Ekiti, Nigerians now know what happened there.’’ Though the
south west is known with its own political violence, but it’s a different ball
game from the ones usually experienced in the northern part, normally laced
with tribal and religion undertone.
The road towards 2015 elections has not been easy on
Nigerians, with various crises rearing its heads dangerously from different
angle of the federation. The highest
being the worse insecurity situation in the history of the country apart from
the civil war. The current act of terrorism going on in the North-East where
the Nigeria military are still daily battling the deadly Boko Haram sect has
remained a mystery to the people. It has
become an issue that has been politicised amid daily waste of lives and
property.
One of the
greatest factors that helped fuelled the current political tension in the
country is the now famous prediction by the United State of America, that the
country presently existing as the Federal Republic of Nigeria might not be
existing in the year 2015. This disturbing information emitted from the Central
Intelligence Agency CIA, one of the world’s efficient security agency under the
America system.
With utterances of division coming from some part of
the south-south and part of the north, the prediction gained momentum and
resulted into the present political division. Apart from the polluted forecast
of the Americans, division in development and resource control creep in and
since then the political atmosphere has never been the same again.
But one factor that would play a vital role on who
occupies Aso-Rock in 2015 is the support of some of the political gladiators in
the country. Men like Atiku Abubakar, a political stallion with a strong
political muscle and followership across all the geo-political zones in the
country. Another strong political
gladiator who holds a strong ace towards the 2015 elections is Ahmed Bola
Tinubu, the fearless and resourceful leader of APC. A story of move to buy him
over and form an Interim Goverment is one of the damaging controversies
confronting the presidency.
The influence of strong political figure like
Olusegun Obasanjo the former occupier of Aso-Rock would also determines who emerge
the next president of the country. His political battle with the present
administration is popular among the people. And some analysts are pointing out
his underground strategies of imposing his effluence on the political landscape
of Nigeria; though others have also pointed out his contribution to the current
political situation of god-fatherism in Nigerian politics.
One other strong figure with a strong clutch on the
political system is former president, Ibrahim Babangida whose romance with
various political office holders in both the ruling party and the opposition is
legendary. Seen as an unpredictable political gladiator that works behind the
curtain; his influence is expected to determine who emerge the next elected
president of Nigeria.
‘’ Men like IBB are still working behind the scene,
his influence could switch the votes for the PDP and give us our deserve
victory.’’ Clement Nwanko a diehard PDP
member from the South-East summarised it this way.
Feelers from the South-south, south-west and some
part of the middle belt indicate a surprise competitive race between the PDP
and the APC. One figure that has stood out boldly is that of Ameachi the
outgoing APC governor of River State and a strong critic of the present
administration. Seen as enemy number one of the president, Ameachi influence in
the political decimal of the south-south has become something of a phenomenon.
Bold, articulate and swift; he is seen as the joker that might caused the PDP
to lose its support in some of the south-south states.
No election in the country since the first republic
has seen an open attack on personality like the 2015 elections and the battle
for the presidency takes the lead in this aspect. News and reports of daily
degrading of each other on both policies and personal life is top on the list
of the skirmishes that has characterized this election. Both the PDP presidential
candidate Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari of the APC seems to have
willing supporters and aides ready to fire back at each other verbal utterances
or political statements made from both sides. While this might be seen as part
of democracy, many of these campaign war of words have helped exposed some
weakness in the polity, and if not make more popular one of the candidate.
The controversies surrounding the 2015 elections are
still ongoing, and they seem to surface as the days roll towards that watershed
that would determine the continuance existence of the country. The card reader issue is still on and the all
important PVC problem is still ongoing.
Whatever the outcome, the 2015 elections rest squarely on who occupies
Aso-Rock as the next elected president come 28th, March, 2015, and
this election could be the decisive force that would determine the continuous
existence of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
First published on the 28th March, 2014 in
the SEE Magazine
